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According to the report the risks about which it has been warning over the past decade are starting to manifest themselves in new, sometimes unexpected ways and harm people, institutions and economies. The Report also analyses the significance of global risks to the business community at a regional and country-level.
Almost 750 experts and decisionmakers in the World Economic Forum’s multistakeholder communities responded to this year’s Global Risks Perception Survey. Respondents are drawn from business, academia, civil society and the public sector and span different areas of expertise, geographies and age groups.
The survey asked respondents to consider 29 global risks – categorized as societal, technological, economic, environmental or geopolitical – over a 10-year time horizon, and rate each according to their perceived likelihood of it occurring and impact if it does.
The failure of climate change mitigation and adaptation has risen to the top and is perceived in 2016 as the most impactful risk for the years to come, ahead of weapons of mass destruction, ranking 2nd, and water crises, ranking 3rd.
Large-scale involuntary migration was also rated among the top five for impact, as was severe energy price shock (increase or decrease).
The risk rated most likely was largescale involuntary migration, with last year’s top scorer – interstate conflict with regional consequences – giving way to the environmental risks of extreme weather events and the failure of climate change mitigation and adaptation and followed by major natural catastrophes.
Global risks that remain serious because of their combined impact and likelihood involve some economic risks, including fiscal crises in key economies and high structural unemployment and underemployment. These are complemented by cyberattacks and profound social instability.
Respondents were also asked which risks were related and could give rise to cascading risks. Three emerged strongly: the potential for climate change to exacerbate water crises, with impacts including conflicts and more forced migration.
Private sector respondents to the World Economic Forum’s Executive Opinion Survey were asked to identify their risks of highest concern for doing business in the next 10 years. The responses, from 140 economies, reveal patterns of concern at country and regional levels that can usefully inform initiatives to engage the private sector in building resilience to global risks.
On a global scale, two economic risks – unemployment and underemployment and energy price shocks – are mentioned as the top risks of highest concern for doing business in half of the 140 economies. These are followed by the failure of national governance, fiscal crises, asset bubbles and cyberattacks. Economic risks predominate in responses from Europe, energy prices are the top concern in Canada, executives in the United States are most concerned about cyber-related risks and attacks. Respondents from Central Asia and Russia worry about fiscal crises and unemployment, along with the risks of unmanageable inflation and interstate conflict. Environmental risks worry business leaders in East Asia and the Pacific. In South Asia concerns also include energy prices, together with fiscal crises, unemployment and failure of national governance.