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A sharp rise in unpaid bills between companies has emerged as the single biggest constraint on Russian business activity, according to a recent monitoring survey by the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (RSPP) for the third quarter of 2025. The findings highlight a deepening liquidity crisis within the corporate sector, even as pressures from the banking system appear to have eased.
The survey reveals that 38.9% of respondents identified non-payments from clients and partners as their primary challenge. This marks a significant jump from the previous quarter, where just over a quarter of companies cited this issue. The growing "domino effect" of illiquidity now overshadows other concerns, pointing to strained financial trust and cash flow problems rippling through the economy.
This problem is compounded by two other major headwinds: a decline in consumer demand for products and services (34.2%) and a widespread lack of working capital (32.4%). In a notable shift from the second quarter, the inability to secure borrowed funds has drastically fallen as a primary concern. Only 16.2% of organizations now list it as a main constraint, down from over a third previously, suggesting that the initial credit shock following sanctions has been absorbed, only to be replaced by internal liquidity shortages.
A host of secondary challenges continue to plague businesses, with between 13% and 15% of companies highlighting cuts to investment programs, an inability to import vital equipment and technology, and persistent logistical nightmares. These include lengthening delivery times, rising tariffs, and difficulties in insuring cargo. Other significant constraints include a worsening supply of raw materials, a growing fiscal burden, the direct negative impact of sanctions, and forced reductions in production volume.
On a more positive note, the acute problem of conducting international payments, which affected 12.6% of companies in Q2, has subsided dramatically, with only 3% reporting it as an issue in Q3. This indicates that businesses have found alternative financial channels or have adapted to the new sanctions regime. Furthermore, 9% of respondents reported facing no significant problems at all.
Austerity as the Dominant Strategy
In response to these persistent challenges, corporate strategy remains firmly focused on belt-tightening. The survey shows that over two-thirds of companies (67.6%) are planning to continue cutting costs. A significant minority, however, are pursuing a dual track of austerity and investment. Roughly a quarter of firms intend to push forward with programs for energy efficiency and digitalization, while 24.1% plan to maintain or even increase their investment programs.
Other adaptive measures are also on the table. Around 16-17% of companies are preparing to intensify production, reallocate costs without reducing output, or simply raise their prices. More defensive moves, such as requiring customer prepayments, developing import substitution programs, and selling non-core assets, are being pursued by 12-13% of businesses.
For the majority of companies planning cost reductions, the primary target is administrative and overhead expenses, with a staggering 80% aiming to cut back in this area. Another 37% plan to reduce spending on consumed services.
Personnel-related costs are also in the crosshairs for about a quarter of these companies. The preferred method for two-thirds of this group is to slow or freeze new hiring, while 30.8% plan to scale back employee benefits and social packages. An equal number of companies are looking to switch to cheaper raw materials and to cut funding for charitable and social programs.
In essence, the RSPP data captures an economy grappling with a new normal, defined by internal financial strain and strategic adaptation. While the immediate panic over credit and international payments has receded, it has been replaced by a more insidious crisis of illiquidity and low demand. The corporate response is largely defensive, centered on preserving cash, though a resilient segment of the business community continues to bet on modernization and investment for the long term.
Russian Business Climate Hits 2025 Low as Payment Crises and Logistics Woes Deepen, RSPP Survey Finds
MOSCOW, October 2025 – The Russian business environment deteriorated to its lowest point this year, according to the latest Business Climate Index from the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (RSPP). The composite index fell to 44.3 points in October, signaling growing pessimism among industrialists and entrepreneurs, primarily driven by a worsening crisis in payment discipline between companies.
The survey results paint a picture of an economy facing internal strain, even as some external pressures have stabilized. The dynamics of demand were mixed: while perceived demand across entire industries fell, a slightly larger share of companies (20.3%) reported a rise in demand for their own products compared to those who saw an increase in broader sectoral demand (16%).
Deepening Corporate Illiquidity
The most alarming data comes from the B2B Index, which plummeted to a three-year low of 44.3 points. This decline is directly attributed to a sharp deterioration in the fulfillment of contractual obligations. The indicator measuring companies' own default rate fell by 5.6 points, while the metric for counterparties' defaults dropped 3.7 points to a very low 34.7 points. Crucially, the balance of responses shifted negatively: in October, 10% of firms reported an increase in their own unmet obligations (double the 5% that saw a decrease), and a full third of respondents reported a rise in defaults by their partners.
Logistics and Financial Pressures Mount
After five months in positive territory, the Logistics Index fell back into negative assessment, dropping to 46.5 points. This was largely due to a significant drawdown in warehouse inventories and longer average delivery times, suggesting companies are de-stocking amid uncertainty.
The financial outlook for companies also darkened. The "financial position of companies" indicator fell to 39 points, with over a quarter of respondents reporting a worsening of their financial health. The state of the stock market was assessed at 41.3 points, with 16.1% of businesses noting a negative dynamic and not a single respondent reporting an improvement. The only faint positive note in the financial sector was a slight stabilization in the currency market, which most companies (90.7%) described as unchanged.
Reflecting this challenging environment, the Personal Assessment Index fell to 36.9 points. A significant 31.3% of business representatives believe the country's business climate has worsened, while only 7.6% hold a positive view.
Investment and Social Activity: A Glimmer of Resilience
Despite the gloomy business climate, the data on corporate activity reveals a degree of resilience. Two-thirds of organizations continued to implement investment projects, with the majority (67.9%) doing so without changes to their schedule or budget. However, one-fifth of companies were forced to cut investment volumes.
The labor market showed strength, with 87.3% of companies reporting new hiring, a significant 12.3% increase from the previous period. Layoffs were reported by only 6.8% of organizations.
Social support for employees remains widespread, with 85.6% of companies maintaining such programs. The most common benefits are voluntary health insurance (66%), additional payments beyond legal requirements (63.1%), and subsidized vacation packages and children's camps (59.2%). For most companies (76.4%), spending on these social programs remained unchanged, though 14.5% managed to increase their budgets.
In summary, the October 2025 survey depicts a Russian business sector grappling with a severe internal liquidity crunch and logistical setbacks. While investment and employment have so far held relatively steady, the collapse in payment discipline and worsening financial assessments point to underlying vulnerabilities that threaten the economy's stability as the year draws to a close.