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The Russian business environment deteriorated to its lowest point this year, according to the latest Business Climate Index from the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (RSPP). The composite index fell to 44.3 points in October, signaling growing pessimism among industrialists and entrepreneurs, primarily driven by a worsening crisis in payment discipline between companies.
The survey results paint a picture of an economy facing internal strain, even as some external pressures have stabilized. The dynamics of demand were mixed: while perceived demand across entire industries fell, a slightly larger share of companies (20.3%) reported a rise in demand for their own products compared to those who saw an increase in broader sectoral demand (16%).
Deepening Corporate Illiquidity
The most alarming data comes from the B2B Index, which plummeted to a three-year low of 44.3 points. This decline is directly attributed to a sharp deterioration in the fulfillment of contractual obligations. The indicator measuring companies' own default rate fell by 5.6 points, while the metric for counterparties' defaults dropped 3.7 points to a very low 34.7 points. Crucially, the balance of responses shifted negatively: in October, 10% of firms reported an increase in their own unmet obligations (double the 5% that saw a decrease), and a full third of respondents reported a rise in defaults by their partners.
Logistics and Financial Pressures Mount
After five months in positive territory, the Logistics Index fell back into negative assessment, dropping to 46.5 points. This was largely due to a significant drawdown in warehouse inventories and longer average delivery times, suggesting companies are de-stocking amid uncertainty.
The financial outlook for companies also darkened. The "financial position of companies" indicator fell to 39 points, with over a quarter of respondents reporting a worsening of their financial health. The state of the stock market was assessed at 41.3 points, with 16.1% of businesses noting a negative dynamic and not a single respondent reporting an improvement. The only faint positive note in the financial sector was a slight stabilization in the currency market, which most companies (90.7%) described as unchanged.
Reflecting this challenging environment, the Personal Assessment Index fell to 36.9 points. A significant 31.3% of business representatives believe the country's business climate has worsened, while only 7.6% hold a positive view.
Investment and Social Activity: A Glimmer of Resilience
Despite the gloomy business climate, the data on corporate activity reveals a degree of resilience. Two-thirds of organizations continued to implement investment projects, with the majority (67.9%) doing so without changes to their schedule or budget. However, one-fifth of companies were forced to cut investment volumes.
The labor market showed strength, with 87.3% of companies reporting new hiring, a significant 12.3% increase from the previous period. Layoffs were reported by only 6.8% of organizations.
Social support for employees remains widespread, with 85.6% of companies maintaining such programs. The most common benefits are voluntary health insurance (66%), additional payments beyond legal requirements (63.1%), and subsidized vacation packages and children's camps (59.2%). For most companies (76.4%), spending on these social programs remained unchanged, though 14.5% managed to increase their budgets.
In summary, the October 2025 survey depicts a Russian business sector grappling with a severe internal liquidity crunch and logistical setbacks. While investment and employment have so far held relatively steady, the collapse in payment discipline and worsening financial assessments point to underlying vulnerabilities that threaten the economy's stability as the year draws to a close.