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The year 2025 marked a pronounced slowdown in the Russian economy, following a period of robust growth in 2024. According to Rosstat’s preliminary estimates, GDP growth decelerated to 1% in 2025 from 4.9% in the previous year. Industrial production growth fell from 5.1% to 1.3%, while manufacturing growth declined even more sharply from 9.1% to 3.6%. The most acute cooling occurred in the third quarter of 2025, reflecting the cumulative effect of the Bank of Russia’s tight monetary policy, which constrained consumer demand and business lending, subsequently weighing on investment activity. Additional contributing factors included fiscal consolidation following a peak in government spending, ongoing sanctions pressure, and a decline in oil and gas exports.
The trajectory of the Central Bank’s key interest rate proved to be the defining factor shaping economic conditions throughout the period. Having risen from 16% in February 2024 to a historic high of 21% in October 2024, the rate began a gradual easing cycle only in June 2025, declining first to 20% and then to 18% by late July, before further adjustments brought it to 16% by the end of the year. The Central Bank justified these moves by citing slowing core inflation and stabilizing credit risks, while maintaining hawkish rhetoric to anchor inflation expectations.
The RSPP’s Composite Business Climate Index demonstrated a clear inverse correlation with the key interest rate and a close alignment with broader macroeconomic trends. During March through May 2024, the Composite Index rose above the 50-point threshold, signaling an improvement in business conditions relative to the previous period, with positive assessments outnumbering negative ones. During this time, the component indices—Product Market, B2B, B2G, and Personal Assessments—also exceeded 50 points, while the Financial Markets and Logistics indices approached the threshold.
Beginning in June 2024, when the Composite Index fell to 49.6 points, a sustained decline set in, culminating in a year-low of 45.4 points in December 2024. This structural shift was initially driven by deteriorating assessments of financial markets and personal evaluations of the business climate, which remained the primary drag throughout the second half of 2024, while other indicators proved more resilient before gradually turning negative.
The year 2025 was characterized by stagnation, with the Composite Index ranging between 45.6 and 47.1 points—values below 50 indicating that each successive period was perceived as worse than the previous one. A peak of 47.1 points in March, supported by improved personal assessments and better evaluations of financial conditions and logistics, was followed by a renewed downturn in April. By July, the Composite Index had fallen to 46.0 points, driven primarily by worsening assessments of market conditions and the B2B sector. From July through December, the index stabilized at approximately 46 points, with positive contributions from business-government relations, relations with financial institutions, and logistics, offset by persistent negative trends in market indicators, personal assessments, and financial metrics. The average deviation from the 50-point threshold widened from -1.5 points in 2024 to -3.8 points in 2025.
Product Market Index
The Product Market Index remained in positive territory until October 2024, with the highest readings recorded between March and May of that year. Growth in both sectoral and company-specific demand, reported by roughly 30% of companies month after month, drove the positive momentum. From September 2024 onward, demand growth began to moderate, though it remained above the 50-point threshold until March 2025. Selling prices and competition levels also contributed positively to the index in 2024, while procurement prices consistently acted as a drag, with a persistently high share of respondents reporting inflationary pressure. The index first dipped below 50 points in November 2024, coinciding with worsening procurement price assessments and a deceleration in demand growth.
From April 2025, demand indicators turned negative as neutral and negative assessments gained the upper hand, and the share of companies reporting increased demand steadily declined. Although procurement price assessments improved, this failed to offset the impact of contracting demand, and companies also began reporting worsening selling price dynamics. The Product Market Index fell to 48.7 points in April 2025 and continued to decline, reaching a low of 44.4 points in August 2025. A modest recovery to 45.2 points followed in October, with the index stabilizing around that level for the remainder of the year.
B2B Index
Like the Product Market Index, the B2B Index stood above 50 points in the first half of 2024, but it crossed below the threshold earlier, in July 2024. Negative trends subsequently intensified, with the index declining steadily until August 2025, when it bottomed out at 45.6 points. A modest correction began in autumn 2025, with the index rising gradually by 0.2 to 0.5 points per month to reach 46.9 points in December.
The most significant downward pressure came from the indicator measuring counterparty non-fulfillment of obligations. The share of companies reporting an increase in overdue obligations from counterparties rose steadily from 11–20% in the first half of 2024 to 16–30% in the second half. In 2025, between 26% and 33% of companies faced rising overdue obligations, with peaks in July, October, and December. From September 2024 onward, this indicator consistently scored below 40 points.
Obligations owed to counterparties also showed deterioration. While this indicator frequently exceeded 50 points in 2024—meaning more companies reported a decrease rather than an increase in overdue obligations—the trend turned negative from August 2024 onward. The most challenging period came in April 2025, when 19% of respondents reported an increase in overdue obligations to counterparties, compared with only 7% reporting a decrease. Conditions became more balanced thereafter, with positive assessments prevailing in July–September and November 2025, though by a narrow margin of just 2 percentage points.
The new orders indicator, previously a consistent driver of B2B index growth, weakened significantly in 2025. The share of companies reporting an increase in new orders, which had stood at nearly one-third in previous periods, fell from 25% in December 2024 to a range of 20–25% in the first five months of 2025, before dropping sharply to 16% in June. Meanwhile, the share of companies reporting a decline in new orders increased, narrowing the gap between positive and negative responses. By August 2025, positive and negative assessments were evenly balanced, and in September and October, negative assessments prevailed. A slight stabilization occurred in the final two months of the year, with the share of companies reporting growth in new orders rebounding to 25%, though 21% of companies continued to experience contracting incoming demand and sales efficiency.
Logistics Index
Throughout 2024, the Logistics Index remained below 50 points, with the highest readings recorded in February through April, when the deviation from the threshold stood at less than 1.6 points. The index dipped to lows of 47.3–47.5 points in the summer before beginning a gradual recovery. In 2025, the positive trend strengthened, and between May and August, the index moved into positive territory, helping to stabilize the overall Composite Index alongside the B2G index.
The inventory levels indicator was the primary driver of this improvement, consistently scoring above 50 points in both years and rising to 57–59 points between July and October 2024 and again between May and September 2025. Delivery times and overall logistics conditions also received significantly more favorable assessments during May–September 2025. Key developments in the logistics sector included accelerated automation and digitalization, with widespread adoption of AI-powered warehouse and transport management systems, development of multimodal transport, reorientation of supply chains toward eastern corridors supported by modernization of the Eastern range, expansion of container shipping to Asia-Pacific markets, and construction of new logistics hubs in Moscow, the Far East, and Tatarstan. However, the positive momentum halted in autumn 2025, and by December the Logistics Index had fallen back to 47.5 points.
B2G Index
The B2G Index was distinguished by the highest share of neutral responses of any component, with 85–90% of companies consistently reporting no change in their relations with financial institutions, government bodies, and foreign partners. Nevertheless, fluctuations in the remaining share of positive and negative assessments, driven by political developments, monetary policy decisions, and international events, caused notable swings in the index.
Assessments of business-government relations remained consistently positive throughout the period, never falling below 50 points, thereby providing a foundation of stability for the B2G Index. However, this positive influence was offset by the dynamics of the other two component indicators: relations with financial institutions and relations with foreign partners.
Relations with financial institutions remained above 50 points until June 2024, when the key interest rate stood at 16%. Following the Central Bank’s rate hike to 18% in July 2024, assessments deteriorated, and the indicator fell below 50 points. Further rate increases in 2024 prompted continued negative responses, with a clear correlation between business assessments and Central Bank actions. This deterioration pushed the B2G Index into negative territory in July 2024, where it remained for the rest of the year, with a brief respite in February–April 2025. Once the rate-cutting cycle began, assessments of relations with financial institutions improved, with the indicator rising above 50 points in August 2025 and continuing to climb, supporting growth in the overall B2G Index.
Relations with foreign partners exhibited a clear correlation with the timing of new sanctions packages. In the second half of 2024, following sanctions targeting over 400 entities, including Arctic LNG 2 and the shadow fleet, as well as energy-related restrictions affecting Nord Stream 2, the indicator fell to lows of 43–45 points. Subsequent adaptation to the new conditions and reorientation toward alternative markets led to a gradual recovery, though the indicator remained below 50 points throughout 2024–2025, reaching approximately 47–47.8 points by the end of 2025.
The B2G Index thus experienced several distinct phases: it exceeded 50 points in early 2024, peaking at 51.7–51.8 points in March–April, before declining to a low of 47.3 points in November 2024. A recovery followed, with the index plateauing between February and August 2025, fluctuating within a narrow range, before embarking on a sustained rise from September 2025 to reach 51.3 points by year-end.
Financial Markets Index
The Financial Markets Index approached the 50-point threshold in February–April 2024, reaching a high of 49.4 points in March. A sustained decline followed, with relatively moderate monthly losses of around 0.7 points from May through October, followed by sharper drops of 1.6 points in October, 2.7 points in November, and another 1.6 points in December, bringing the index to a year-end low of 39.7 points—a 17% decline from its starting level. A slow recovery ensued in 2025, with the index rising to a peak of 45.6 points in April. A second wave of decline occurred in the summer, pulling the index down to 44.1 points in August, before it finally climbed back above 45 points in November and December.
The negative trend in the first half of 2024 was driven primarily by deteriorating assessments of currency and stock market conditions. The sharpest declines in October–December 2024, however, were closely tied to a rapid deterioration in companies’ own financial position assessments. This indicator, which had remained above 50 points in the first three quarters of 2024, began to fall in October and dropped to 43 points by December 2024, a level at which it remained throughout most of 2025.
A significant inflection point occurred in November 2024, when the share of companies reporting a deterioration in their financial position overtook the share reporting improvement for the first time, with roughly one-quarter of respondents giving negative assessments compared with only 12% positive. In December, the distribution remained similar, and in January 2025, the share of negative assessments rose to 29%, while positive assessments edged up to 16%. Throughout 2025, the share of negative assessments ranged between 20% and 29%, with companies consistently more than twice as likely to report deterioration as improvement. This worsening likely reflected a combination of factors, including higher borrowing costs due to tight monetary policy, increased debt burdens, declining profitability, cooling demand, and rising operating costs.
The currency market indicator began to decline in May 2024, losing 1–2 points per month to reach a low of 34.8 points in December 2024. Conditions improved from March 2025 onward, with the indicator rising to 45.8 points and stabilizing in that range through September, before a positive trend emerged in the final quarter, lifting the indicator to 48.6–48.7 points by year-end. These assessments aligned with actual currency market dynamics: the ruble weakened progressively in 2024, pressured by sanctions that disrupted trading on the Moscow Exchange and pushed the market toward Chinese yuan and exchange-traded funds, alongside rising import demand and oil price corrections. The ruble fell 13.37% over the course of the year. In 2025, the currency stabilized following the Central Bank’s rate cuts and the elimination of repatriation requirements, strengthening in the second half and ending the year at a low of 75.34 rubles per USD.
Assessments of stock market conditions followed a similar trajectory, albeit with less volatility. The indicator reached its lowest levels between October 2024 and January 2025, ranging from 40 to 42 points, before recovering slowly to 47–47.3 points in November and December 2025. Stock market performance in 2024 was weighed down by sanctions against the Moscow Exchange and high interest rates, though an IPO boom in the final quarter provided some offset. In 2025, a recovery in IPO activity and declining rates supported stabilization, though geopolitical factors continued to constrain a full rebound.
Personal Assessments Index
The Personal Assessments Index remained the most reactive and volatile of all the RSPP business climate indices, reflecting respondents’ subjective reactions to the evolving national situation and current agenda. Its dispersion was significantly wider than that of other indices. For the first time in the survey’s history, the index entered positive territory between March and May 2024, but subsequently declined more sharply than any other component, falling to a low of 38.8 points in December 2024. A recovery to 43 points followed by March 2025, but the index then resumed its decline along a more gradual trajectory, ultimately ending the year at 38.8 points—matching the level recorded in late 2024. In the final quarter of 2025, approximately one-third of respondents consistently gave pessimistic assessments, perceiving a continuous deterioration in the business climate, while half reported no change.